Thursday, August 30, 2007
Republican Poll Watch: Iowa
This is my second installment of primary poll watch. Last time around we looked at the Democratic field in Iowa, and now it's the turn of the Grand Ole Party.
Like the Democrats, Iowa has sent the winner of their caucus towards their parties nomination in the last three elections. And in total they have only been off twice in the last eight elections (Bob Dole in '88, and H Dubya in '80.)
The Fake Poll:
The Ames "straw poll", something I'm glad the Dems don't do, makes about as much sense as the BCS. The results have really turned this race into Romney's to lose. This unscientific media orgy held on August 11th, pitted the Republicans against one another to see which campaign had more money errr supporters. John McCain, Fred Thompson, and Rudy Guiliani all opted out of the straw poll which turned it into a great opportunity for the "second tier" candidates to make an impact. Romney ended up running away with the win thanks to the $442.87 average amount per voter he spent. He (Romney) came in first, followed by Huckabee, Brownback, Tancredo, and finally good ole Ron Paul. Huckabee was dubbed the winner out of the lower tier which has resulted in a lot of attention and energy towards his campaign. The battle of Ames did claim a casualty in the process, none other than Tommy Thompson (ya the guy you never heard of that looked life a frog.)
The Good Stuff:
The last poll published in Iowa which came out yesterday, had Romney out ahead with 27%, Guiliani with 17%, energized Huckabee with 14%, undeclared Thompson with 13%, undeclared Newt Gingrich with 7%, and what the hell ever happened to John McCain straight talking his way into 5%. To make things worse for McCain, a few weeks ago his campaign actually saw a poll that showed Democrat Barack Obama having higher poll numbers in Iowa amoung Republicans than Johnnie.
Over at RealClearPolitics.com, their "poll of polls" now show Romney with a 15.6% average point lead.
Next up, Dems in New Hampshire.
Posted by xag at 1:11 PM