Sunday, October 28, 2007

KY-Sen: McConnell VERY vulnerable

This is for Navid, a native Kentuckian, and still a Kentucky voter. So while the rest of us just watch the race, Navid will actually be voting in it. Via Swing State Project, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is actually vulnerable.

Check out the potential matchups against these four possible candidates, from a Research 2000 poll done for the Lexington Herald Leader (.pdf).

Chandler (D): 41
McConnell (R-inc.): 46
Undecided: 13

Stumbo (D): 37
McConnell (R-inc.): 46
Undecided: 17

Luallen (D): 40
McConnell (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 15

Horne (D): 34
McConnell (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4%)

  • Ben Chandler currently represents Kentucky's 6th Congressional District. He lost a gubernatorial race to Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2003, but held statewide office for many years prior.

  • Crit Luallen is Kentucky's State Auditor. She is seeking re-election to that post this year. At least one poll showed her in the lead for that race.

  • Greg Stumbo is the outgoing state Attorney General. He is probably best known for bringing charges against Fletcher over the latter's corrupt state hiring practices. Stumbo ran for the Dem Lt. Gov. nod earlier this year on a ticket with Bruce Lunsford, but the pair lost to Steve Beshear and Daniel Mongiardo.

  • Andrew Horne is a Marine who lost a primary last year to John Yarmuth in KY-03. (Yarmuth of course went on to defeat GOP Rep. Anne Northup in one of the bigger upsets of 2006.)

  • So regardless of who we run, the key is that McConnell is under that crucial 50% mark. For an incumbent, being under 50% in a re-election poll is a big danger sign. Mitch can't break 46% in any matchup. And as the folks from DitchMitchKY remind us, just six months before the 2006 midterm elections, George Allen was still leading Jim Webb 56%-37%, and Allen ended up outspending Webb $19 million to $8.5 million. All that could not help Allen keep his seat.

    We're in good shape here. We CAN compete in "red" states, people just need to realize it can be done. Keep in mind Bill Clinton won Kentucky twice.

    1 comment:

    Navid said...

    My old Kentucky home. Yeah, we're 3:2 in terms of dems to republicans. The problem is we're usually ignored on the national level. Hopefully that will change this time around.