So this is my first blog post, on any blog of any sort. Woo, I think I will have some grape juice to celebrate. I realize that no one asked for my opinion, but I will share it anyway due to the fact that I have the right to freedom of expression (one big reason I love America). This is also my second time writing this because I somehow deleted it the first time. Well, I've done my fair share of travelling and I have most recently come back from Europe, where I spent most of my time in Germany. I noticed many differences between here and there and started to think of why I love America, which is a nice way of saying 'Why I think America is better.' So here are some of the little reasons:
1. Our money doesn't look like glorified monopoly money
2. I will never receive $3.94 (or euros in this respect) as a fist full of change, ahem 1 and 2 euro coins and lack of a quarter like coin
3. It can be 102 degrees outside, yet a comfortable 73 degrees inside due to the magnificence of AC, which also keeps my drink at a comfortable temperature even after the ice has melted
4. The aforementioned temperatures are quoted in Fahrenheit instead of Celsius, and the drink came with ice in it
5. The drink is also probably bigger than 0.2 liters, whatever a liter is
6. Free Refills!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111
7. When offered ketchup at McDonald's in a manner that implies it is free, I am not then charged for it (I'm looking at you The Dutch)
8. Our cars are better looking
9. Our gas isn't sold by the liter
10. We don't pretend that our national passenger rail system is cheap, easy or convenient
11. Our international country calling code is 001, yeaaaaaaaaaaaah
12. When asked why the USA gets to be 001, I can respond "because we invented the phone"
13. Our passports are blue
14. No one cares about soccer or rugby
15. We own the .gov domain and don't have to add .us or some other additive (example gov.uk or gov.au)
16. When asked why this is, I can say "Because Al Gore invented the Internet"
17. Coalition governments are horribly inefficient, in my opinion
18. We have Kentucky, So Cal is alright too
Well, this is all I have for now. I hope you enjoyed it.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Edwards buys media time after Bush's speech
So later today at 6pm L.A. time, Bush will deliver a speech where he "proposes" to withdraw 30,000 troops from Iraq, without mentioning their tours of duty were up anyway, and would HAVE to come home. It's like taking credit for gravity.
John Edwards has bought a 2-minute block of time on MSNBC to rebut Bush after his speech concludes.
Look for it after Bush's speech ends around 6:15pm, on MSNBC. Oh, you might want to watch Keith Olbermann's show right before it too. He should have some *interesting* things to say about the upcoming speech. :-)
John Edwards has bought a 2-minute block of time on MSNBC to rebut Bush after his speech concludes.
"Unfortunately, the president is pressing on with the only strategy he's ever had — more time, more troops, and more war," Edwards says in the ad, according to excerpts provided by his campaign.
....
"Tell Congress you know the truth," Edwards says. "They have the power to end this war and you expect them to use it. When the president asks for more money and more time, Congress needs to tell him he only gets one choice — a firm timeline for withdrawal."
Look for it after Bush's speech ends around 6:15pm, on MSNBC. Oh, you might want to watch Keith Olbermann's show right before it too. He should have some *interesting* things to say about the upcoming speech. :-)
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
More on K. West's Graduation
Here's another excellent article from the Village Voice about Ye's new masterpiece. Check it out all you hip-hop fans and haters.
By the way, Kanye sold more albums than 50 Cent on Tuesday. With any luck, Fiddy will come through on his promise to retire if West outsells him in the first week.
By the way, Kanye sold more albums than 50 Cent on Tuesday. With any luck, Fiddy will come through on his promise to retire if West outsells him in the first week.
C'mon UC Irvine!
Respected liberal constitutional scholar Edwin Chemerinsky was expected to be the dean of UC Irvine's new law school. However, UCI Chancellor Michael V. Drake reneged on the contract Chemerinsky signed with the school on August 16. Drake told the professor that he is too "politically controversial." Nevermind that Chemerinsky is considered to be one of the brightest legal minds in the United States. Some believe that the addition of Chemerinsky to UCI Law School would have propelled the institution to the forefront of legal academia.
I wonder what Aria Ghafari has to say about this?
I wonder what Aria Ghafari has to say about this?
A look at the 2008 Senate races, Part 3
(See Parts 1 and 2 for earlier installments.)
So today, I finally reveal the Tier I races, the top tier. These are the key races where party control may very well switch parties. #1 on the list is the seat most likely to change hands. And like most countdowns, we're doin' this in reverse order.
Tier I
7. South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) had a very good week to begin September, making an emotional return to the Senate for the first time since suffering a brain hemorrhage back in December 2006. So far, his illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge him. Governor Mike Rounds (R) would be a top challenger, but hasn’t made any indications that he will give up his governorship for the seat. State rep. Joel Dykstra (R) is the only announced candidate so far to challenge Johnson. And all indications currently point to Johnson seeking re-election. Should he not, two possible Democratic replacements are former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle and Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin.
6. Maine: Susan Collins (R) doesn’t have the stature that fellow Senator Olympia Snowe (R) has. Rep. Tom Allen (D) has announced his candidacy to challenge Collins. For some reason, nobody’s bothered to poll this matchup since late April. Joe Lieberman went to Maine in June to hold a fundraiser for Collins. Yeah, Lieberman. Well, MoveOn.org and the blogosphere responded with their own online fundraiser for Tom Allen, and ended up raising more money for Allen than Lieberman raised for Collins.
5. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is probably the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008. But how endangered that really is remains to be seen. She was able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP. Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run as a Republican for state treasurer for this November, and making it almost a certainty that he will challenge her in 2008. Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana. Landrieu’s most formidable challenger, however, is Bobby Jindal (R), who looks set to win the governorship this November. Louisiana, though, is about the only state trending red, thanks to hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never coming back to the state after Hurricane Katrina.
4. Oregon: When activist Steve Novick (D) was the only announced candidate, this race seemed safer for Gordon Smith (R). Novick, after all, was born without fibulas or a left hand, and stands at 4’9” and has a hook on his left arm. But he made a name for himself at the Dept. of Justice, suing Superfund polluters, and led the Love Canal case on behalf of the government. But then, last month Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) announced his candidacy. Merkley had been key in getting the Democrats the majority in the state house in the 2006 elections, and got the endorsements of current Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) and former Governor Barbara Roberts (D), the only female governor in Oregon history. Smith’s approvals have dropped significantly since the beginning of this year. A new development is that former NEA chairman and current Oregon State professor John Frohnmayer will likely enter the race... as an independent. He served under the first Bush as NEA chair, and is the brother of former Oregon Attorney General Dave Frohnmayer (R), who also used to be the University of Oregon’s president. It’s unclear if he could be a spoiler, and if so, even for which party he’d be a spoiler for. These factors make it hard to figure out where to rank this race, so I’m putting it right in the middle.
3. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. Now, with Coleman still supporting Bush on Iraq, he may be committing political suicide. He’s drawn two top challengers in comedian Al Franken and lawyer Mike Ciresi. While Coleman looked safe earlier, the latest SurveyUSA poll shows both of them holding Coleman under the 50% mark. Given that little-known Jim Cohen even manages to hold him under 50% shows that he is in trouble. In July 2007, Coleman’s job approval fell into negative territory for the first time, which can’t be helping his chances. Rasmussen Reports has just released a poll also showing Coleman under 50%, with both Democrats now within the margin of error. Ciresi is known for his role in suing the tobacco companies for the state of Minnesota back in 1994, eventually winning a $6 billion settlement for Minnesota. Meanwhile, Al Franken actually outraised Coleman in the second quarter of fundraising, $1.9 million to $1.6 million, so he definitely looks financially competitive. Add to this mix Lt. Col. Joe Reypa (R), a pro-Iraq war activist who is considering challenging Coleman in the GOP primary because he feels Coleman isn’t conservative enough for Minnesota. Read this diary for a pretty detailed comparison of the Democratic candidates in this race.
2. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate. Democrats have cleared the path for Mark Udall here. Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family, his father Mo having run for President in 1976, and his uncle Stewart having served as Interior Secretary under JFK. He was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s. On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee, after former Rep. Scott McInnis said he would not be running. Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006. Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors. Schaffer’s campaign released a poll showing him losing to Udall 45%-40%. When you’re of the incumbent party, and you’re releasing a poll showing you’re only down by 5 points, yeah, that’s not exactly a good sign. In addition, Udall is sitting on a $2.5 million warchest, while Schaffer has less than $700,000.
Which leaves the top race to....
1. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum. Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race. No, really. A recent poll (.pdf) from the Universtiy of New Hampshire showed that if former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, enters the race, she would crush him 54%-38%. She will announce her intentions later this month. A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble. Under 40%, and you can start writing their political obituary. Even without Shaheen in the race, the other three lesser-known Democratic challengers who are in the race all hold Sununu under 45%. The ARG poll has even worse news for Sununu, showing him losing to Shaheen 57%-29%. I’ve never seen an incumbent poll below the 30% mark. Add to that the fact that New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.
So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand in early September. Obviously, things can change quite a bit as different candidates jump in the races and others drop out. Some “dream” candidates won’t materialize, and some may materialize where nobody had suspected one would emerge. We won’t know what the national mood will be like 14 months from now. Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them... until my next update, at least. :-)
Discuss away.
So today, I finally reveal the Tier I races, the top tier. These are the key races where party control may very well switch parties. #1 on the list is the seat most likely to change hands. And like most countdowns, we're doin' this in reverse order.
Tier I
7. South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) had a very good week to begin September, making an emotional return to the Senate for the first time since suffering a brain hemorrhage back in December 2006. So far, his illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge him. Governor Mike Rounds (R) would be a top challenger, but hasn’t made any indications that he will give up his governorship for the seat. State rep. Joel Dykstra (R) is the only announced candidate so far to challenge Johnson. And all indications currently point to Johnson seeking re-election. Should he not, two possible Democratic replacements are former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle and Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin.
6. Maine: Susan Collins (R) doesn’t have the stature that fellow Senator Olympia Snowe (R) has. Rep. Tom Allen (D) has announced his candidacy to challenge Collins. For some reason, nobody’s bothered to poll this matchup since late April. Joe Lieberman went to Maine in June to hold a fundraiser for Collins. Yeah, Lieberman. Well, MoveOn.org and the blogosphere responded with their own online fundraiser for Tom Allen, and ended up raising more money for Allen than Lieberman raised for Collins.
5. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is probably the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008. But how endangered that really is remains to be seen. She was able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP. Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run as a Republican for state treasurer for this November, and making it almost a certainty that he will challenge her in 2008. Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana. Landrieu’s most formidable challenger, however, is Bobby Jindal (R), who looks set to win the governorship this November. Louisiana, though, is about the only state trending red, thanks to hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never coming back to the state after Hurricane Katrina.
4. Oregon: When activist Steve Novick (D) was the only announced candidate, this race seemed safer for Gordon Smith (R). Novick, after all, was born without fibulas or a left hand, and stands at 4’9” and has a hook on his left arm. But he made a name for himself at the Dept. of Justice, suing Superfund polluters, and led the Love Canal case on behalf of the government. But then, last month Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) announced his candidacy. Merkley had been key in getting the Democrats the majority in the state house in the 2006 elections, and got the endorsements of current Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) and former Governor Barbara Roberts (D), the only female governor in Oregon history. Smith’s approvals have dropped significantly since the beginning of this year. A new development is that former NEA chairman and current Oregon State professor John Frohnmayer will likely enter the race... as an independent. He served under the first Bush as NEA chair, and is the brother of former Oregon Attorney General Dave Frohnmayer (R), who also used to be the University of Oregon’s president. It’s unclear if he could be a spoiler, and if so, even for which party he’d be a spoiler for. These factors make it hard to figure out where to rank this race, so I’m putting it right in the middle.
3. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. Now, with Coleman still supporting Bush on Iraq, he may be committing political suicide. He’s drawn two top challengers in comedian Al Franken and lawyer Mike Ciresi. While Coleman looked safe earlier, the latest SurveyUSA poll shows both of them holding Coleman under the 50% mark. Given that little-known Jim Cohen even manages to hold him under 50% shows that he is in trouble. In July 2007, Coleman’s job approval fell into negative territory for the first time, which can’t be helping his chances. Rasmussen Reports has just released a poll also showing Coleman under 50%, with both Democrats now within the margin of error. Ciresi is known for his role in suing the tobacco companies for the state of Minnesota back in 1994, eventually winning a $6 billion settlement for Minnesota. Meanwhile, Al Franken actually outraised Coleman in the second quarter of fundraising, $1.9 million to $1.6 million, so he definitely looks financially competitive. Add to this mix Lt. Col. Joe Reypa (R), a pro-Iraq war activist who is considering challenging Coleman in the GOP primary because he feels Coleman isn’t conservative enough for Minnesota. Read this diary for a pretty detailed comparison of the Democratic candidates in this race.
2. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate. Democrats have cleared the path for Mark Udall here. Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family, his father Mo having run for President in 1976, and his uncle Stewart having served as Interior Secretary under JFK. He was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s. On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee, after former Rep. Scott McInnis said he would not be running. Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006. Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors. Schaffer’s campaign released a poll showing him losing to Udall 45%-40%. When you’re of the incumbent party, and you’re releasing a poll showing you’re only down by 5 points, yeah, that’s not exactly a good sign. In addition, Udall is sitting on a $2.5 million warchest, while Schaffer has less than $700,000.
Which leaves the top race to....
1. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum. Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race. No, really. A recent poll (.pdf) from the Universtiy of New Hampshire showed that if former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, enters the race, she would crush him 54%-38%. She will announce her intentions later this month. A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble. Under 40%, and you can start writing their political obituary. Even without Shaheen in the race, the other three lesser-known Democratic challengers who are in the race all hold Sununu under 45%. The ARG poll has even worse news for Sununu, showing him losing to Shaheen 57%-29%. I’ve never seen an incumbent poll below the 30% mark. Add to that the fact that New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.
So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand in early September. Obviously, things can change quite a bit as different candidates jump in the races and others drop out. Some “dream” candidates won’t materialize, and some may materialize where nobody had suspected one would emerge. We won’t know what the national mood will be like 14 months from now. Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them... until my next update, at least. :-)
Discuss away.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
I'm glad someone else said this
Ok, did anyone have a really big problem with the stupid MoveOn ad thats been getting waay too much coverage? My instincts were strongly against it- not necessarily on the merits of their argument, which I think are questionable but not terribly outrageous.
But we're in politics here, and we have to be smart about what we say. I don't pretend to be some sort of Lakoff-like messaging/framing sage, but I feel like attacking our military commanders, rather than the real culprits in Washington, is really the only way we lose the public opinion fight over Iraq. Anyways, I wanted to share my frustration with that, and share Kleinman's post over at RBC, which succinctly put everything I was thinking.
While we're on the subject- does anyone think MoveOn is slowly becoming less relevant to our party? They started off so well- against Clinton impeachment, against the war in Iraq, running ads around the country on corruption. But I think shit like this puts them back on the fringe of the party, the part that understands nothing about strategy and is blinded to the mood of our country by its ideology. Thoughts?
But we're in politics here, and we have to be smart about what we say. I don't pretend to be some sort of Lakoff-like messaging/framing sage, but I feel like attacking our military commanders, rather than the real culprits in Washington, is really the only way we lose the public opinion fight over Iraq. Anyways, I wanted to share my frustration with that, and share Kleinman's post over at RBC, which succinctly put everything I was thinking.
While we're on the subject- does anyone think MoveOn is slowly becoming less relevant to our party? They started off so well- against Clinton impeachment, against the war in Iraq, running ads around the country on corruption. But I think shit like this puts them back on the fringe of the party, the part that understands nothing about strategy and is blinded to the mood of our country by its ideology. Thoughts?
A look at the 2008 Senate races, Part 2
Yesterday, I revealed Part 1 of my look at the 2008 Senate races in the Tier III and non-race categories. Today, let's look at Tier II, the races that are itching to become Tier I races but aren't there quite yet for whatever reason, and a special category that I'll call Tier I-A.
Tier I-A
Due to recent incumbent retirements, these two seats are just itching to jump to Tier I status, but have yet to have a named challenger, though in both cases many people are assuming certain powerhouse names will declare. But until they actually do, I can’t put them in the top tier just yet. And if they end up not declaring, these will drop to Tier II or even III. Counting down towards the top tier....
9. Nebraska: Chuck Hagel (R) has announced his retirement, and now all eyes turn to former Nebraska Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey (D) to see if he will challenge for this open seat. If he enters, this jumps up to become a top-tier race. Current Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns (R), who was also a former Governor of Nebraska, may enter this race too. If both do, then it will be an epic battle of two giants in Nebraska politics. Already, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) is in the race, originally planning to primary Hagel if need be. If Kerrey does not enter the race, then Omaha mayor Mike Fahey (D) is the next choice for the Democrats.
8. Virginia: Virginia icon John Warner (R) recently announced he would be retiring rather than seek another re-election. Just about everybody seems certain enough that former Governor Mark Warner (D) will jump into this race. If he does, this automatically becomes a top-tier race. Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating. On the GOP side, Rep. Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore, who dropped out of the presidential race, seem to be likely entries to replace John Warner. This has the potential to turn into a very nasty primary, which would only serve to help Mark Warner even more. Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore. So if they were to face each other in the general, well, that would be quite interesting.
Update: And just on cue, Rasmussen Reports released a new poll showing Mark Warner would CRUSH Jim Gilmore by a 54%-34% margin, and Tom Davis by a 57%-30% margin.
Tier II
Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) is always a candidate for retirement, being 84 years old right now, but says he will seek a sixth term. Stevens is also now under FBI investigation for his connection with Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president. Democrats feel either former Governor Tony Knowles or Anchorage mayor Mark Begich would be their top contenders for this seat. I put this in Tier II because the seat may at least change hands, if not parties.
Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats. Right now, the focus in Kentucky is on the Governor’s race, where incumbent Ernie Fletcher (R) is in serious trouble of being voted out of office in a landslide to Steve Beshear (D). Should that happen, it will only encourage Kentucky Democrats even more to take on McConnell. McConnell has seen his disapproval rise over the past year, and now Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D) has formed an exploratory committee to challenge him. The grassroots seem to prefer Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D), a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War.
New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) said he’s running again, but his age is always a concern, as he is already 83 years old right now. But no top-tier challenger has yet stepped up to challenge him.
North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole (R) dodged a bullet when Governor Mike Easley, who cannot run for re-election because of term limits, said he would not run for her Senate seat. Good news for her, as a January poll had showed him beating her. However, North Carolina’s Public Policy Polling showed Dole only beating state rep. Grier Martin (D) by a 43%-37% margin, and it’s looking more like Martin will jump in the race. Again, any incumbent not polling above 50% in a head-to-head matchup is in trouble. But until Martin formally declares, this stays in Tier II.
South Carolina: This race is in Tier II because Lindsey Graham (R) may actually be primaried out of his own party, for his support of Bush’s immigration plan. The natives are restless. A party switch is much less likely, but a different senator serving in this seat come 2009 is a distinct possibility.
Texas: John Cornyn (R) should be safe, but the recent defection of one of the most influential Hispanic Republicans in the country, Houston businessman Massey Villareal, to the Rick Noriega (D) camp, signals perhaps a change in the Latino community in Texas. They already kicked out the only Mexican-American Republican in Congress last December when Henry Bonilla (R) lost his re-election bid to Ciro Rodriguez (D). The analysis showed that Latinos that had reliably voted for Bonilla in the past abandoned him in mass droves. In Maverick County, Bonilla got 59% of the vote there in 2004, and lost that county by a whopping 86%-14% in 2006, mostly because of the immigration issue, and his support for building a fence along the border. The same may be happening now to Cornyn. Also in the race is wealthy trial attorney Mikal Watts (D). Party activists feel Noriega has a much better chance at knocking off Cornyn than Watts would. Noriega is a Lt. Col. in the Texas National Guard, and served in Afghanistan after 9/11.
Tier I-A
Due to recent incumbent retirements, these two seats are just itching to jump to Tier I status, but have yet to have a named challenger, though in both cases many people are assuming certain powerhouse names will declare. But until they actually do, I can’t put them in the top tier just yet. And if they end up not declaring, these will drop to Tier II or even III. Counting down towards the top tier....
9. Nebraska: Chuck Hagel (R) has announced his retirement, and now all eyes turn to former Nebraska Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey (D) to see if he will challenge for this open seat. If he enters, this jumps up to become a top-tier race. Current Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns (R), who was also a former Governor of Nebraska, may enter this race too. If both do, then it will be an epic battle of two giants in Nebraska politics. Already, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) is in the race, originally planning to primary Hagel if need be. If Kerrey does not enter the race, then Omaha mayor Mike Fahey (D) is the next choice for the Democrats.
8. Virginia: Virginia icon John Warner (R) recently announced he would be retiring rather than seek another re-election. Just about everybody seems certain enough that former Governor Mark Warner (D) will jump into this race. If he does, this automatically becomes a top-tier race. Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating. On the GOP side, Rep. Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore, who dropped out of the presidential race, seem to be likely entries to replace John Warner. This has the potential to turn into a very nasty primary, which would only serve to help Mark Warner even more. Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore. So if they were to face each other in the general, well, that would be quite interesting.
Update: And just on cue, Rasmussen Reports released a new poll showing Mark Warner would CRUSH Jim Gilmore by a 54%-34% margin, and Tom Davis by a 57%-30% margin.
Tier II
Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) is always a candidate for retirement, being 84 years old right now, but says he will seek a sixth term. Stevens is also now under FBI investigation for his connection with Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president. Democrats feel either former Governor Tony Knowles or Anchorage mayor Mark Begich would be their top contenders for this seat. I put this in Tier II because the seat may at least change hands, if not parties.
Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats. Right now, the focus in Kentucky is on the Governor’s race, where incumbent Ernie Fletcher (R) is in serious trouble of being voted out of office in a landslide to Steve Beshear (D). Should that happen, it will only encourage Kentucky Democrats even more to take on McConnell. McConnell has seen his disapproval rise over the past year, and now Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D) has formed an exploratory committee to challenge him. The grassroots seem to prefer Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D), a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War.
New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) said he’s running again, but his age is always a concern, as he is already 83 years old right now. But no top-tier challenger has yet stepped up to challenge him.
North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole (R) dodged a bullet when Governor Mike Easley, who cannot run for re-election because of term limits, said he would not run for her Senate seat. Good news for her, as a January poll had showed him beating her. However, North Carolina’s Public Policy Polling showed Dole only beating state rep. Grier Martin (D) by a 43%-37% margin, and it’s looking more like Martin will jump in the race. Again, any incumbent not polling above 50% in a head-to-head matchup is in trouble. But until Martin formally declares, this stays in Tier II.
South Carolina: This race is in Tier II because Lindsey Graham (R) may actually be primaried out of his own party, for his support of Bush’s immigration plan. The natives are restless. A party switch is much less likely, but a different senator serving in this seat come 2009 is a distinct possibility.
Texas: John Cornyn (R) should be safe, but the recent defection of one of the most influential Hispanic Republicans in the country, Houston businessman Massey Villareal, to the Rick Noriega (D) camp, signals perhaps a change in the Latino community in Texas. They already kicked out the only Mexican-American Republican in Congress last December when Henry Bonilla (R) lost his re-election bid to Ciro Rodriguez (D). The analysis showed that Latinos that had reliably voted for Bonilla in the past abandoned him in mass droves. In Maverick County, Bonilla got 59% of the vote there in 2004, and lost that county by a whopping 86%-14% in 2006, mostly because of the immigration issue, and his support for building a fence along the border. The same may be happening now to Cornyn. Also in the race is wealthy trial attorney Mikal Watts (D). Party activists feel Noriega has a much better chance at knocking off Cornyn than Watts would. Noriega is a Lt. Col. in the Texas National Guard, and served in Afghanistan after 9/11.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Thompson has the "Stupid" Vote
I'm basically stealing this story from Political Wire, but I think it's worth putting my lack of originality and hardwork on public display.
The latest SurveyUSA poll shows that Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson is gobbling up the "stupid" vote in California. The former Law and Order star leads "among men, Conservatives, Pro-Life voters, among those opposed to stem-cell research, among those opposed to same-sex marriage, among gun owners, among those age 65+, and among those who think global warming is made-up."
How's that for liberal elitism? Deal with it. Actually, I promise I'm only half as elitist as this post suggests. My girlfriend might disagree, though.
The latest SurveyUSA poll shows that Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson is gobbling up the "stupid" vote in California. The former Law and Order star leads "among men, Conservatives, Pro-Life voters, among those opposed to stem-cell research, among those opposed to same-sex marriage, among gun owners, among those age 65+, and among those who think global warming is made-up."
How's that for liberal elitism? Deal with it. Actually, I promise I'm only half as elitist as this post suggests. My girlfriend might disagree, though.
Monday Football Report
UCLA jumps over Va Tech, Auburn, and Georgia (all lost Saturday) to #11 in coaches and AP poll, with the shaky win over BYU.72,000+ for the Rose Bowl home opener.
Next Saturday: @ UTAH (0-2), 2:00PM on Versus
A look at the 2008 Senate races, Part 1
Labor Day has passed us, meaning the 2008 campaign season has really kicked off. So, here’s my first look at the upcoming Senate races. There are 34 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming where both seats are up, due to the passing of Sen. Craig Thomas (R). Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent. So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent’s party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Today's post will take a look at the Tier III races and those that just aren’t considered races at all. Later posts will reveal what I think are Tier II and Tier I races.
Tier III
Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R).
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D) is running for re-election. He was the only Democratic Senate candidate to defeat an incumbent Republican (Tim Hutchinson) in 2002, a very strong year for the GOP. Conventional wisdom had been that former Governor Mike Huckabee would have been the strongest challenger to Pryor, but after his strong showing in the Iowa Straw Poll, it doesn’t look like he’s dropping out of the presidential race anytime soon.
Idaho: Yeah, yeah, we’ve all heard the bathroom jokes by now. But even if Larry Craig resigns, it still is Idaho, and the seat isn’t really in play yet. Rep. Mike Simpson (R) has actually said he does not want the job. It looks likely to go to Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (R), who already beat current Democratic Senate candidate Larry LaRocco for that job last November by a sizable 58%-39% margin.
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) was considered to be a possible retirement by Karl Rove in that infamous PowerPoint presentation Scott Jennings was illegally giving to government agencies. But at the age of 70, Cochran said he’s seeking re-election. No Democrat has announced, but the top candidate for the Democrats would definitely be former Mississippi Attorney General Mike Moore, who won the famous lawsuit against the tobacco companies in the 1990s.
Montana: One would think Max Baucus (D) would be endangered in a red state like Montana, but given that they now have a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators, even Montana’s landscape is changing. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) was thought to be the GOP’s top choice, but he announced back in July that he would stay in the House. Michael Lange (R) is the only announced Republican candidate so far, but given that he was just ousted as House Majority Leader by his own party after an embarrassing video of him launching a profanity-laced tirade against the governor was put on YouTube, it seems right now Democrats want him to be the GOP candidate more than the GOP does.
New Mexico: At the age of 75, Pete Domenici (R) is running for re-election. But his recent role in the firing of U.S. attorney David Iglesias has hampered his chances, though only slightly. Though he is considered an icon in New Mexico politics, his role in that firing dramatically lowered his approval ratings. Only real estate developer Don Wiviott (D) has officially declared so far.
Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling. State senator Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, has declared for this race.
Tennessee: There are rumors swirling that Lamar Alexander (R) will retire, and become the chancellor of Vanderbilt University. Businessman Mike McWherter (D), son of former Tennessee Governor Ned McWherter (D), looks like he’s going to run for this seat, whether or not Alexander retires. If Alexander retires, this race moves up. If not, it stays here barring solid information that McWherter can make it a real race.
Democratic safe seats
Illinois (Dick Durbin)
Iowa (Tom Harkin)
Massachusetts (John Kerry)
Michigan (Carl Levin)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)
Republican safe seats
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Kansas (Pat Roberts)
Wyoming (Michael Enzi)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)
Tier III
Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R).
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D) is running for re-election. He was the only Democratic Senate candidate to defeat an incumbent Republican (Tim Hutchinson) in 2002, a very strong year for the GOP. Conventional wisdom had been that former Governor Mike Huckabee would have been the strongest challenger to Pryor, but after his strong showing in the Iowa Straw Poll, it doesn’t look like he’s dropping out of the presidential race anytime soon.
Idaho: Yeah, yeah, we’ve all heard the bathroom jokes by now. But even if Larry Craig resigns, it still is Idaho, and the seat isn’t really in play yet. Rep. Mike Simpson (R) has actually said he does not want the job. It looks likely to go to Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (R), who already beat current Democratic Senate candidate Larry LaRocco for that job last November by a sizable 58%-39% margin.
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) was considered to be a possible retirement by Karl Rove in that infamous PowerPoint presentation Scott Jennings was illegally giving to government agencies. But at the age of 70, Cochran said he’s seeking re-election. No Democrat has announced, but the top candidate for the Democrats would definitely be former Mississippi Attorney General Mike Moore, who won the famous lawsuit against the tobacco companies in the 1990s.
Montana: One would think Max Baucus (D) would be endangered in a red state like Montana, but given that they now have a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators, even Montana’s landscape is changing. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) was thought to be the GOP’s top choice, but he announced back in July that he would stay in the House. Michael Lange (R) is the only announced Republican candidate so far, but given that he was just ousted as House Majority Leader by his own party after an embarrassing video of him launching a profanity-laced tirade against the governor was put on YouTube, it seems right now Democrats want him to be the GOP candidate more than the GOP does.
New Mexico: At the age of 75, Pete Domenici (R) is running for re-election. But his recent role in the firing of U.S. attorney David Iglesias has hampered his chances, though only slightly. Though he is considered an icon in New Mexico politics, his role in that firing dramatically lowered his approval ratings. Only real estate developer Don Wiviott (D) has officially declared so far.
Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling. State senator Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, has declared for this race.
Tennessee: There are rumors swirling that Lamar Alexander (R) will retire, and become the chancellor of Vanderbilt University. Businessman Mike McWherter (D), son of former Tennessee Governor Ned McWherter (D), looks like he’s going to run for this seat, whether or not Alexander retires. If Alexander retires, this race moves up. If not, it stays here barring solid information that McWherter can make it a real race.
Democratic safe seats
Illinois (Dick Durbin)
Iowa (Tom Harkin)
Massachusetts (John Kerry)
Michigan (Carl Levin)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)
Republican safe seats
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Kansas (Pat Roberts)
Wyoming (Michael Enzi)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)
Gaffe, Table For One
Not sure if I necessarily disagree, but I don't think this is going to fly over to well with Republican voters in South Carolina.
(BTW, that is his wife)
Loretta Sanchez On Season Finale Of The Closer
She will be making an appearance tonight with Larry King on basic cable's most watched scripted series ever. Maybe we have a Democratic female version of Fred Thompson on our hands?
Show airs tonight on TNT @ 9pm.
Republican Culture of Corruption
Does it seem like there's a new scandal involving the GOP just about every week? Maybe because... there is! Here's a video compilation of just SOME of the scandals that have surfaced in just 2007 alone.
Check out the posting that inspired this video. It's got even more scandals that couldn't fit in the video.
And they even left out all the stuff involving the GSA's Lurita Doan violating the Hatch Act and the bizarre murder-suicide of a key GOP operative in Florida, which may have involved a gay escort business and yet another murder in Pennsylvania. No, I'm not kidding.
Check out the posting that inspired this video. It's got even more scandals that couldn't fit in the video.
And they even left out all the stuff involving the GSA's Lurita Doan violating the Hatch Act and the bizarre murder-suicide of a key GOP operative in Florida, which may have involved a gay escort business and yet another murder in Pennsylvania. No, I'm not kidding.
Sunday, September 09, 2007
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