I've put up my latest installment of my rankings of all the Senate races over on DailyKos. Check it out.
And Navid, Kentucky is now a top tier race. Rasmussen just released a poll this morning that has Lunsford BEATING McConnell. ;-)
Showing posts with label Senate 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Senate 2008. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Sunday, March 02, 2008
A look at the Senate races
So with eight months to go, I figure it’s time for an updated look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent’s party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
I've only included the Tier I races here, otherwise this post would take up the entire page. To see the complete list, go here. #1 on the list is the seat most likely to change hands, and so forth. And like most countdowns, we're doin' this in reverse order.
Tier I
10. Texas: John Cornyn (R) has some pretty anemic poll numbers, and the immigration issue seems to have triggered a change in the Latino community. State rep. Rick Noriega (D) got a nice boost when wealthy trial attorney Mikal Watts (D) dropped out of the race and threw his support to Noriega, ensuring a united Democratic front against Cornyn in November. Noriega is also Lt. Col. in the Texas National Guard, served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina. Earlier polling shows Texans are largely dissatisfied with Cornyn, and a baseline poll from last September showed Cornyn beating Noriega 51%-35%, with only 40% saying Cornyn deserved re-election. And that was before Watts dropped out of the Democratic primary. The Texas GOP seems to be concerned about this race, as they recently demanded Noriega release his military records... to them. Instead, Noriega released his records to the entire public and denounced their swiftboating tactics at the same time. Well played, sir. However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in the fourth quarter, and Noriega trailed by almost $7 million in cash on hand to end the year.
9. Maine: Susan Collins (R) doesn’t have the stature that fellow Senator Olympia Snowe (R) has. Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Collins. But even though Maine is a blue state, he’ll have an uphill climb. Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials. The most recent polls all show Collins over the 50% mark, with almost 20-point leads over Allen. And the Maine newspapers suck. I mean, really suck.
Update: I mean, gawd, they really, really suck.
8. Oregon: Gordon Smith (R) has two challengers in lawyer/activist Steve Novick (D) and Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D). Smith’s approvals from 2007 are not as good as they were in 2006 and before. We’ll see if that trend continues. The state party itself is in financial trouble too, facing over a quarter million dollars in debt, and the IRS is calling for some missing payroll taxes. Rasmussen polling still shows Smith with double digit leads over both Democrats, but he is under the 50% mark. Interesting to note, Smith is actually a cousin to the two Udalls running for Senate.
7. Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) is always a candidate for retirement, being 85 years old now, but says he will seek a sixth term. But Stevens is in some legal trouble, with the FBI having raided his home last June in connection with possible bribes from Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president. Former Veco CEO Bill Allen admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens. Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich announced he was forming an exploratory committee (the first step in running). His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972. A Research 2000 poll from December showed Begich already leading Stevens 47%-41%.
6. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008. But how endangered that really is remains to be seen. She was able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP. Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat. Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana. And hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making it even more red than it used to be. Bobby Jindal (R) didn’t even need a runoff to win the governor’s race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected. So that doesn’t bode well for Landrieu’s chances. The good news for her is that she raised over twice as much as Kennedy did in the fourth quarter last year (October – December) and has almost 10 times as cash on hand as he does.
5. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate. Democrats have cleared the path for Rep. Mark Udall here. He’s Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin. On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee. Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006. Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors. At the end of 2007, Udall was sitting on a $3.6 million warchest, with Schaffer trailing by over $2 million. Money isn’t everything, but damn. Dick Wadhams (no, really, that’s his name) is taking over Schaffer’s campaign. Wadhams got Allard first elected to the Senate, and became a rising start in the GOP for managing John Thune’s 2004 win over Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota. But, he was also in charge of managing George Allen’s 2006 re-election bid in Virginia, sending him from a 20-point lead seven months out to defeat. (Allen revealing his inner racist greatly helped, too.) However, recent Rasmussen polling shows Schaffer barely edging out Udall, so this race is far from a given pickup.
4. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. With two top challengers in comedian Al Franken and lawyer Mike Ciresi, Coleman had a change of heart on Iraq, actually criticizing Bush over his handling of Iraq for the first time in years. And the polls have been steadily favoring the Democrats, especially Franken. While earlier polls showed Coleman leading by double digits (though under the 50% mark), both Democrats have been steadily closing the gap. And in February, three polls came out showing Al Franken either leading Coleman or basically tied: Minnesota Public Radio (Franken 43.2%, Coleman 40%), Rasmussen (Franken 49%, Coleman 46%), and SurveyUSA (Coleman 47%, Franken 46%). Ciresi doesn’t seem to do as well. Franken is showing himself to be much more than just a comedian. In 2007, he raised close to $7 million from over 81,000 people! The Minnesota SEIU, a decent-sized union, just endorsed Franken too. In case you’re wondering, there’s no “primary” for the Democrats, but rather the nominee will be picked at the party convention this June among about 1,400 delegates.
3. New Mexico: When Pete Domenici (R) announced he was retiring, it suddenly turned this former Tier III seat into a top tier race. Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly thereafter. Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years, also running for President in 1976. Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s. The GOP side will feature a primary fight between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation is running for this Senate seat! Before Udall even entered the race, hypothetical matchups from Research 2000 and SurveyUSA showed him crushing both GOP opponents by over 15 points. But a more recent Rasmussen poll shows a closer race, though with Udall still hitting the 50% mark in both matchups. The main New Mexico blog questioned the accuracy of the poll, given their matchup showing Obama tied with McCain, defying the trends you see in other states.
2. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum. Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race. No, really. But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor? Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken. The latest from the University of New Hampshire shows her leading 54%-37%. Rasmussen shows a closer race, with her leading 49%-41%. A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble. Under 40%, and you can start writing their political obituary. Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.
1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement. Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating. That’s freaking unheard of. He’ll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year. Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore. Rasmussen Reports released a poll two weeks ago showing Mark Warner would CRUSH Jim Gilmore, 57%-37%.
I've only included the Tier I races here, otherwise this post would take up the entire page. To see the complete list, go here. #1 on the list is the seat most likely to change hands, and so forth. And like most countdowns, we're doin' this in reverse order.
Tier I
10. Texas: John Cornyn (R) has some pretty anemic poll numbers, and the immigration issue seems to have triggered a change in the Latino community. State rep. Rick Noriega (D) got a nice boost when wealthy trial attorney Mikal Watts (D) dropped out of the race and threw his support to Noriega, ensuring a united Democratic front against Cornyn in November. Noriega is also Lt. Col. in the Texas National Guard, served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina. Earlier polling shows Texans are largely dissatisfied with Cornyn, and a baseline poll from last September showed Cornyn beating Noriega 51%-35%, with only 40% saying Cornyn deserved re-election. And that was before Watts dropped out of the Democratic primary. The Texas GOP seems to be concerned about this race, as they recently demanded Noriega release his military records... to them. Instead, Noriega released his records to the entire public and denounced their swiftboating tactics at the same time. Well played, sir. However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in the fourth quarter, and Noriega trailed by almost $7 million in cash on hand to end the year.
9. Maine: Susan Collins (R) doesn’t have the stature that fellow Senator Olympia Snowe (R) has. Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Collins. But even though Maine is a blue state, he’ll have an uphill climb. Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials. The most recent polls all show Collins over the 50% mark, with almost 20-point leads over Allen. And the Maine newspapers suck. I mean, really suck.
Update: I mean, gawd, they really, really suck.
8. Oregon: Gordon Smith (R) has two challengers in lawyer/activist Steve Novick (D) and Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D). Smith’s approvals from 2007 are not as good as they were in 2006 and before. We’ll see if that trend continues. The state party itself is in financial trouble too, facing over a quarter million dollars in debt, and the IRS is calling for some missing payroll taxes. Rasmussen polling still shows Smith with double digit leads over both Democrats, but he is under the 50% mark. Interesting to note, Smith is actually a cousin to the two Udalls running for Senate.
7. Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) is always a candidate for retirement, being 85 years old now, but says he will seek a sixth term. But Stevens is in some legal trouble, with the FBI having raided his home last June in connection with possible bribes from Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president. Former Veco CEO Bill Allen admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens. Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich announced he was forming an exploratory committee (the first step in running). His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972. A Research 2000 poll from December showed Begich already leading Stevens 47%-41%.
6. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008. But how endangered that really is remains to be seen. She was able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP. Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat. Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana. And hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making it even more red than it used to be. Bobby Jindal (R) didn’t even need a runoff to win the governor’s race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected. So that doesn’t bode well for Landrieu’s chances. The good news for her is that she raised over twice as much as Kennedy did in the fourth quarter last year (October – December) and has almost 10 times as cash on hand as he does.
5. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate. Democrats have cleared the path for Rep. Mark Udall here. He’s Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin. On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee. Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006. Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors. At the end of 2007, Udall was sitting on a $3.6 million warchest, with Schaffer trailing by over $2 million. Money isn’t everything, but damn. Dick Wadhams (no, really, that’s his name) is taking over Schaffer’s campaign. Wadhams got Allard first elected to the Senate, and became a rising start in the GOP for managing John Thune’s 2004 win over Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota. But, he was also in charge of managing George Allen’s 2006 re-election bid in Virginia, sending him from a 20-point lead seven months out to defeat. (Allen revealing his inner racist greatly helped, too.) However, recent Rasmussen polling shows Schaffer barely edging out Udall, so this race is far from a given pickup.
4. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. With two top challengers in comedian Al Franken and lawyer Mike Ciresi, Coleman had a change of heart on Iraq, actually criticizing Bush over his handling of Iraq for the first time in years. And the polls have been steadily favoring the Democrats, especially Franken. While earlier polls showed Coleman leading by double digits (though under the 50% mark), both Democrats have been steadily closing the gap. And in February, three polls came out showing Al Franken either leading Coleman or basically tied: Minnesota Public Radio (Franken 43.2%, Coleman 40%), Rasmussen (Franken 49%, Coleman 46%), and SurveyUSA (Coleman 47%, Franken 46%). Ciresi doesn’t seem to do as well. Franken is showing himself to be much more than just a comedian. In 2007, he raised close to $7 million from over 81,000 people! The Minnesota SEIU, a decent-sized union, just endorsed Franken too. In case you’re wondering, there’s no “primary” for the Democrats, but rather the nominee will be picked at the party convention this June among about 1,400 delegates.
3. New Mexico: When Pete Domenici (R) announced he was retiring, it suddenly turned this former Tier III seat into a top tier race. Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly thereafter. Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years, also running for President in 1976. Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s. The GOP side will feature a primary fight between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation is running for this Senate seat! Before Udall even entered the race, hypothetical matchups from Research 2000 and SurveyUSA showed him crushing both GOP opponents by over 15 points. But a more recent Rasmussen poll shows a closer race, though with Udall still hitting the 50% mark in both matchups. The main New Mexico blog questioned the accuracy of the poll, given their matchup showing Obama tied with McCain, defying the trends you see in other states.
2. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum. Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race. No, really. But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor? Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken. The latest from the University of New Hampshire shows her leading 54%-37%. Rasmussen shows a closer race, with her leading 49%-41%. A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble. Under 40%, and you can start writing their political obituary. Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.
1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement. Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating. That’s freaking unheard of. He’ll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year. Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore. Rasmussen Reports released a poll two weeks ago showing Mark Warner would CRUSH Jim Gilmore, 57%-37%.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
A look at the 2008 Senate races, Part 3
(See Parts 1 and 2 for earlier installments.)
So today, I finally reveal the Tier I races, the top tier. These are the key races where party control may very well switch parties. #1 on the list is the seat most likely to change hands. And like most countdowns, we're doin' this in reverse order.
Tier I
7. South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) had a very good week to begin September, making an emotional return to the Senate for the first time since suffering a brain hemorrhage back in December 2006. So far, his illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge him. Governor Mike Rounds (R) would be a top challenger, but hasn’t made any indications that he will give up his governorship for the seat. State rep. Joel Dykstra (R) is the only announced candidate so far to challenge Johnson. And all indications currently point to Johnson seeking re-election. Should he not, two possible Democratic replacements are former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle and Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin.
6. Maine: Susan Collins (R) doesn’t have the stature that fellow Senator Olympia Snowe (R) has. Rep. Tom Allen (D) has announced his candidacy to challenge Collins. For some reason, nobody’s bothered to poll this matchup since late April. Joe Lieberman went to Maine in June to hold a fundraiser for Collins. Yeah, Lieberman. Well, MoveOn.org and the blogosphere responded with their own online fundraiser for Tom Allen, and ended up raising more money for Allen than Lieberman raised for Collins.
5. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is probably the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008. But how endangered that really is remains to be seen. She was able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP. Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run as a Republican for state treasurer for this November, and making it almost a certainty that he will challenge her in 2008. Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana. Landrieu’s most formidable challenger, however, is Bobby Jindal (R), who looks set to win the governorship this November. Louisiana, though, is about the only state trending red, thanks to hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never coming back to the state after Hurricane Katrina.
4. Oregon: When activist Steve Novick (D) was the only announced candidate, this race seemed safer for Gordon Smith (R). Novick, after all, was born without fibulas or a left hand, and stands at 4’9” and has a hook on his left arm. But he made a name for himself at the Dept. of Justice, suing Superfund polluters, and led the Love Canal case on behalf of the government. But then, last month Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) announced his candidacy. Merkley had been key in getting the Democrats the majority in the state house in the 2006 elections, and got the endorsements of current Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) and former Governor Barbara Roberts (D), the only female governor in Oregon history. Smith’s approvals have dropped significantly since the beginning of this year. A new development is that former NEA chairman and current Oregon State professor John Frohnmayer will likely enter the race... as an independent. He served under the first Bush as NEA chair, and is the brother of former Oregon Attorney General Dave Frohnmayer (R), who also used to be the University of Oregon’s president. It’s unclear if he could be a spoiler, and if so, even for which party he’d be a spoiler for. These factors make it hard to figure out where to rank this race, so I’m putting it right in the middle.
3. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. Now, with Coleman still supporting Bush on Iraq, he may be committing political suicide. He’s drawn two top challengers in comedian Al Franken and lawyer Mike Ciresi. While Coleman looked safe earlier, the latest SurveyUSA poll shows both of them holding Coleman under the 50% mark. Given that little-known Jim Cohen even manages to hold him under 50% shows that he is in trouble. In July 2007, Coleman’s job approval fell into negative territory for the first time, which can’t be helping his chances. Rasmussen Reports has just released a poll also showing Coleman under 50%, with both Democrats now within the margin of error. Ciresi is known for his role in suing the tobacco companies for the state of Minnesota back in 1994, eventually winning a $6 billion settlement for Minnesota. Meanwhile, Al Franken actually outraised Coleman in the second quarter of fundraising, $1.9 million to $1.6 million, so he definitely looks financially competitive. Add to this mix Lt. Col. Joe Reypa (R), a pro-Iraq war activist who is considering challenging Coleman in the GOP primary because he feels Coleman isn’t conservative enough for Minnesota. Read this diary for a pretty detailed comparison of the Democratic candidates in this race.
2. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate. Democrats have cleared the path for Mark Udall here. Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family, his father Mo having run for President in 1976, and his uncle Stewart having served as Interior Secretary under JFK. He was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s. On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee, after former Rep. Scott McInnis said he would not be running. Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006. Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors. Schaffer’s campaign released a poll showing him losing to Udall 45%-40%. When you’re of the incumbent party, and you’re releasing a poll showing you’re only down by 5 points, yeah, that’s not exactly a good sign. In addition, Udall is sitting on a $2.5 million warchest, while Schaffer has less than $700,000.
Which leaves the top race to....
1. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum. Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race. No, really. A recent poll (.pdf) from the Universtiy of New Hampshire showed that if former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, enters the race, she would crush him 54%-38%. She will announce her intentions later this month. A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble. Under 40%, and you can start writing their political obituary. Even without Shaheen in the race, the other three lesser-known Democratic challengers who are in the race all hold Sununu under 45%. The ARG poll has even worse news for Sununu, showing him losing to Shaheen 57%-29%. I’ve never seen an incumbent poll below the 30% mark. Add to that the fact that New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.
So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand in early September. Obviously, things can change quite a bit as different candidates jump in the races and others drop out. Some “dream” candidates won’t materialize, and some may materialize where nobody had suspected one would emerge. We won’t know what the national mood will be like 14 months from now. Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them... until my next update, at least. :-)
Discuss away.
So today, I finally reveal the Tier I races, the top tier. These are the key races where party control may very well switch parties. #1 on the list is the seat most likely to change hands. And like most countdowns, we're doin' this in reverse order.
Tier I
7. South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) had a very good week to begin September, making an emotional return to the Senate for the first time since suffering a brain hemorrhage back in December 2006. So far, his illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge him. Governor Mike Rounds (R) would be a top challenger, but hasn’t made any indications that he will give up his governorship for the seat. State rep. Joel Dykstra (R) is the only announced candidate so far to challenge Johnson. And all indications currently point to Johnson seeking re-election. Should he not, two possible Democratic replacements are former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle and Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin.
6. Maine: Susan Collins (R) doesn’t have the stature that fellow Senator Olympia Snowe (R) has. Rep. Tom Allen (D) has announced his candidacy to challenge Collins. For some reason, nobody’s bothered to poll this matchup since late April. Joe Lieberman went to Maine in June to hold a fundraiser for Collins. Yeah, Lieberman. Well, MoveOn.org and the blogosphere responded with their own online fundraiser for Tom Allen, and ended up raising more money for Allen than Lieberman raised for Collins.
5. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is probably the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008. But how endangered that really is remains to be seen. She was able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP. Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run as a Republican for state treasurer for this November, and making it almost a certainty that he will challenge her in 2008. Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana. Landrieu’s most formidable challenger, however, is Bobby Jindal (R), who looks set to win the governorship this November. Louisiana, though, is about the only state trending red, thanks to hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never coming back to the state after Hurricane Katrina.
4. Oregon: When activist Steve Novick (D) was the only announced candidate, this race seemed safer for Gordon Smith (R). Novick, after all, was born without fibulas or a left hand, and stands at 4’9” and has a hook on his left arm. But he made a name for himself at the Dept. of Justice, suing Superfund polluters, and led the Love Canal case on behalf of the government. But then, last month Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) announced his candidacy. Merkley had been key in getting the Democrats the majority in the state house in the 2006 elections, and got the endorsements of current Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) and former Governor Barbara Roberts (D), the only female governor in Oregon history. Smith’s approvals have dropped significantly since the beginning of this year. A new development is that former NEA chairman and current Oregon State professor John Frohnmayer will likely enter the race... as an independent. He served under the first Bush as NEA chair, and is the brother of former Oregon Attorney General Dave Frohnmayer (R), who also used to be the University of Oregon’s president. It’s unclear if he could be a spoiler, and if so, even for which party he’d be a spoiler for. These factors make it hard to figure out where to rank this race, so I’m putting it right in the middle.
3. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. Now, with Coleman still supporting Bush on Iraq, he may be committing political suicide. He’s drawn two top challengers in comedian Al Franken and lawyer Mike Ciresi. While Coleman looked safe earlier, the latest SurveyUSA poll shows both of them holding Coleman under the 50% mark. Given that little-known Jim Cohen even manages to hold him under 50% shows that he is in trouble. In July 2007, Coleman’s job approval fell into negative territory for the first time, which can’t be helping his chances. Rasmussen Reports has just released a poll also showing Coleman under 50%, with both Democrats now within the margin of error. Ciresi is known for his role in suing the tobacco companies for the state of Minnesota back in 1994, eventually winning a $6 billion settlement for Minnesota. Meanwhile, Al Franken actually outraised Coleman in the second quarter of fundraising, $1.9 million to $1.6 million, so he definitely looks financially competitive. Add to this mix Lt. Col. Joe Reypa (R), a pro-Iraq war activist who is considering challenging Coleman in the GOP primary because he feels Coleman isn’t conservative enough for Minnesota. Read this diary for a pretty detailed comparison of the Democratic candidates in this race.
2. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate. Democrats have cleared the path for Mark Udall here. Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family, his father Mo having run for President in 1976, and his uncle Stewart having served as Interior Secretary under JFK. He was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s. On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee, after former Rep. Scott McInnis said he would not be running. Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006. Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors. Schaffer’s campaign released a poll showing him losing to Udall 45%-40%. When you’re of the incumbent party, and you’re releasing a poll showing you’re only down by 5 points, yeah, that’s not exactly a good sign. In addition, Udall is sitting on a $2.5 million warchest, while Schaffer has less than $700,000.
Which leaves the top race to....
1. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum. Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race. No, really. A recent poll (.pdf) from the Universtiy of New Hampshire showed that if former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, enters the race, she would crush him 54%-38%. She will announce her intentions later this month. A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble. Under 40%, and you can start writing their political obituary. Even without Shaheen in the race, the other three lesser-known Democratic challengers who are in the race all hold Sununu under 45%. The ARG poll has even worse news for Sununu, showing him losing to Shaheen 57%-29%. I’ve never seen an incumbent poll below the 30% mark. Add to that the fact that New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.
So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand in early September. Obviously, things can change quite a bit as different candidates jump in the races and others drop out. Some “dream” candidates won’t materialize, and some may materialize where nobody had suspected one would emerge. We won’t know what the national mood will be like 14 months from now. Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them... until my next update, at least. :-)
Discuss away.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
A look at the 2008 Senate races, Part 2
Yesterday, I revealed Part 1 of my look at the 2008 Senate races in the Tier III and non-race categories. Today, let's look at Tier II, the races that are itching to become Tier I races but aren't there quite yet for whatever reason, and a special category that I'll call Tier I-A.
Tier I-A
Due to recent incumbent retirements, these two seats are just itching to jump to Tier I status, but have yet to have a named challenger, though in both cases many people are assuming certain powerhouse names will declare. But until they actually do, I can’t put them in the top tier just yet. And if they end up not declaring, these will drop to Tier II or even III. Counting down towards the top tier....
9. Nebraska: Chuck Hagel (R) has announced his retirement, and now all eyes turn to former Nebraska Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey (D) to see if he will challenge for this open seat. If he enters, this jumps up to become a top-tier race. Current Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns (R), who was also a former Governor of Nebraska, may enter this race too. If both do, then it will be an epic battle of two giants in Nebraska politics. Already, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) is in the race, originally planning to primary Hagel if need be. If Kerrey does not enter the race, then Omaha mayor Mike Fahey (D) is the next choice for the Democrats.
8. Virginia: Virginia icon John Warner (R) recently announced he would be retiring rather than seek another re-election. Just about everybody seems certain enough that former Governor Mark Warner (D) will jump into this race. If he does, this automatically becomes a top-tier race. Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating. On the GOP side, Rep. Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore, who dropped out of the presidential race, seem to be likely entries to replace John Warner. This has the potential to turn into a very nasty primary, which would only serve to help Mark Warner even more. Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore. So if they were to face each other in the general, well, that would be quite interesting.
Update: And just on cue, Rasmussen Reports released a new poll showing Mark Warner would CRUSH Jim Gilmore by a 54%-34% margin, and Tom Davis by a 57%-30% margin.
Tier II
Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) is always a candidate for retirement, being 84 years old right now, but says he will seek a sixth term. Stevens is also now under FBI investigation for his connection with Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president. Democrats feel either former Governor Tony Knowles or Anchorage mayor Mark Begich would be their top contenders for this seat. I put this in Tier II because the seat may at least change hands, if not parties.
Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats. Right now, the focus in Kentucky is on the Governor’s race, where incumbent Ernie Fletcher (R) is in serious trouble of being voted out of office in a landslide to Steve Beshear (D). Should that happen, it will only encourage Kentucky Democrats even more to take on McConnell. McConnell has seen his disapproval rise over the past year, and now Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D) has formed an exploratory committee to challenge him. The grassroots seem to prefer Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D), a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War.
New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) said he’s running again, but his age is always a concern, as he is already 83 years old right now. But no top-tier challenger has yet stepped up to challenge him.
North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole (R) dodged a bullet when Governor Mike Easley, who cannot run for re-election because of term limits, said he would not run for her Senate seat. Good news for her, as a January poll had showed him beating her. However, North Carolina’s Public Policy Polling showed Dole only beating state rep. Grier Martin (D) by a 43%-37% margin, and it’s looking more like Martin will jump in the race. Again, any incumbent not polling above 50% in a head-to-head matchup is in trouble. But until Martin formally declares, this stays in Tier II.
South Carolina: This race is in Tier II because Lindsey Graham (R) may actually be primaried out of his own party, for his support of Bush’s immigration plan. The natives are restless. A party switch is much less likely, but a different senator serving in this seat come 2009 is a distinct possibility.
Texas: John Cornyn (R) should be safe, but the recent defection of one of the most influential Hispanic Republicans in the country, Houston businessman Massey Villareal, to the Rick Noriega (D) camp, signals perhaps a change in the Latino community in Texas. They already kicked out the only Mexican-American Republican in Congress last December when Henry Bonilla (R) lost his re-election bid to Ciro Rodriguez (D). The analysis showed that Latinos that had reliably voted for Bonilla in the past abandoned him in mass droves. In Maverick County, Bonilla got 59% of the vote there in 2004, and lost that county by a whopping 86%-14% in 2006, mostly because of the immigration issue, and his support for building a fence along the border. The same may be happening now to Cornyn. Also in the race is wealthy trial attorney Mikal Watts (D). Party activists feel Noriega has a much better chance at knocking off Cornyn than Watts would. Noriega is a Lt. Col. in the Texas National Guard, and served in Afghanistan after 9/11.
Tier I-A
Due to recent incumbent retirements, these two seats are just itching to jump to Tier I status, but have yet to have a named challenger, though in both cases many people are assuming certain powerhouse names will declare. But until they actually do, I can’t put them in the top tier just yet. And if they end up not declaring, these will drop to Tier II or even III. Counting down towards the top tier....
9. Nebraska: Chuck Hagel (R) has announced his retirement, and now all eyes turn to former Nebraska Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey (D) to see if he will challenge for this open seat. If he enters, this jumps up to become a top-tier race. Current Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns (R), who was also a former Governor of Nebraska, may enter this race too. If both do, then it will be an epic battle of two giants in Nebraska politics. Already, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) is in the race, originally planning to primary Hagel if need be. If Kerrey does not enter the race, then Omaha mayor Mike Fahey (D) is the next choice for the Democrats.
8. Virginia: Virginia icon John Warner (R) recently announced he would be retiring rather than seek another re-election. Just about everybody seems certain enough that former Governor Mark Warner (D) will jump into this race. If he does, this automatically becomes a top-tier race. Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating. On the GOP side, Rep. Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore, who dropped out of the presidential race, seem to be likely entries to replace John Warner. This has the potential to turn into a very nasty primary, which would only serve to help Mark Warner even more. Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore. So if they were to face each other in the general, well, that would be quite interesting.
Update: And just on cue, Rasmussen Reports released a new poll showing Mark Warner would CRUSH Jim Gilmore by a 54%-34% margin, and Tom Davis by a 57%-30% margin.
Tier II
Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) is always a candidate for retirement, being 84 years old right now, but says he will seek a sixth term. Stevens is also now under FBI investigation for his connection with Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president. Democrats feel either former Governor Tony Knowles or Anchorage mayor Mark Begich would be their top contenders for this seat. I put this in Tier II because the seat may at least change hands, if not parties.
Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats. Right now, the focus in Kentucky is on the Governor’s race, where incumbent Ernie Fletcher (R) is in serious trouble of being voted out of office in a landslide to Steve Beshear (D). Should that happen, it will only encourage Kentucky Democrats even more to take on McConnell. McConnell has seen his disapproval rise over the past year, and now Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D) has formed an exploratory committee to challenge him. The grassroots seem to prefer Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D), a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War.
New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) said he’s running again, but his age is always a concern, as he is already 83 years old right now. But no top-tier challenger has yet stepped up to challenge him.
North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole (R) dodged a bullet when Governor Mike Easley, who cannot run for re-election because of term limits, said he would not run for her Senate seat. Good news for her, as a January poll had showed him beating her. However, North Carolina’s Public Policy Polling showed Dole only beating state rep. Grier Martin (D) by a 43%-37% margin, and it’s looking more like Martin will jump in the race. Again, any incumbent not polling above 50% in a head-to-head matchup is in trouble. But until Martin formally declares, this stays in Tier II.
South Carolina: This race is in Tier II because Lindsey Graham (R) may actually be primaried out of his own party, for his support of Bush’s immigration plan. The natives are restless. A party switch is much less likely, but a different senator serving in this seat come 2009 is a distinct possibility.
Texas: John Cornyn (R) should be safe, but the recent defection of one of the most influential Hispanic Republicans in the country, Houston businessman Massey Villareal, to the Rick Noriega (D) camp, signals perhaps a change in the Latino community in Texas. They already kicked out the only Mexican-American Republican in Congress last December when Henry Bonilla (R) lost his re-election bid to Ciro Rodriguez (D). The analysis showed that Latinos that had reliably voted for Bonilla in the past abandoned him in mass droves. In Maverick County, Bonilla got 59% of the vote there in 2004, and lost that county by a whopping 86%-14% in 2006, mostly because of the immigration issue, and his support for building a fence along the border. The same may be happening now to Cornyn. Also in the race is wealthy trial attorney Mikal Watts (D). Party activists feel Noriega has a much better chance at knocking off Cornyn than Watts would. Noriega is a Lt. Col. in the Texas National Guard, and served in Afghanistan after 9/11.
Monday, September 10, 2007
A look at the 2008 Senate races, Part 1
Labor Day has passed us, meaning the 2008 campaign season has really kicked off. So, here’s my first look at the upcoming Senate races. There are 34 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming where both seats are up, due to the passing of Sen. Craig Thomas (R). Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent. So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent’s party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Today's post will take a look at the Tier III races and those that just aren’t considered races at all. Later posts will reveal what I think are Tier II and Tier I races.
Tier III
Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R).
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D) is running for re-election. He was the only Democratic Senate candidate to defeat an incumbent Republican (Tim Hutchinson) in 2002, a very strong year for the GOP. Conventional wisdom had been that former Governor Mike Huckabee would have been the strongest challenger to Pryor, but after his strong showing in the Iowa Straw Poll, it doesn’t look like he’s dropping out of the presidential race anytime soon.
Idaho: Yeah, yeah, we’ve all heard the bathroom jokes by now. But even if Larry Craig resigns, it still is Idaho, and the seat isn’t really in play yet. Rep. Mike Simpson (R) has actually said he does not want the job. It looks likely to go to Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (R), who already beat current Democratic Senate candidate Larry LaRocco for that job last November by a sizable 58%-39% margin.
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) was considered to be a possible retirement by Karl Rove in that infamous PowerPoint presentation Scott Jennings was illegally giving to government agencies. But at the age of 70, Cochran said he’s seeking re-election. No Democrat has announced, but the top candidate for the Democrats would definitely be former Mississippi Attorney General Mike Moore, who won the famous lawsuit against the tobacco companies in the 1990s.
Montana: One would think Max Baucus (D) would be endangered in a red state like Montana, but given that they now have a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators, even Montana’s landscape is changing. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) was thought to be the GOP’s top choice, but he announced back in July that he would stay in the House. Michael Lange (R) is the only announced Republican candidate so far, but given that he was just ousted as House Majority Leader by his own party after an embarrassing video of him launching a profanity-laced tirade against the governor was put on YouTube, it seems right now Democrats want him to be the GOP candidate more than the GOP does.
New Mexico: At the age of 75, Pete Domenici (R) is running for re-election. But his recent role in the firing of U.S. attorney David Iglesias has hampered his chances, though only slightly. Though he is considered an icon in New Mexico politics, his role in that firing dramatically lowered his approval ratings. Only real estate developer Don Wiviott (D) has officially declared so far.
Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling. State senator Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, has declared for this race.
Tennessee: There are rumors swirling that Lamar Alexander (R) will retire, and become the chancellor of Vanderbilt University. Businessman Mike McWherter (D), son of former Tennessee Governor Ned McWherter (D), looks like he’s going to run for this seat, whether or not Alexander retires. If Alexander retires, this race moves up. If not, it stays here barring solid information that McWherter can make it a real race.
Democratic safe seats
Illinois (Dick Durbin)
Iowa (Tom Harkin)
Massachusetts (John Kerry)
Michigan (Carl Levin)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)
Republican safe seats
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Kansas (Pat Roberts)
Wyoming (Michael Enzi)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)
Tier III
Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R).
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D) is running for re-election. He was the only Democratic Senate candidate to defeat an incumbent Republican (Tim Hutchinson) in 2002, a very strong year for the GOP. Conventional wisdom had been that former Governor Mike Huckabee would have been the strongest challenger to Pryor, but after his strong showing in the Iowa Straw Poll, it doesn’t look like he’s dropping out of the presidential race anytime soon.
Idaho: Yeah, yeah, we’ve all heard the bathroom jokes by now. But even if Larry Craig resigns, it still is Idaho, and the seat isn’t really in play yet. Rep. Mike Simpson (R) has actually said he does not want the job. It looks likely to go to Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (R), who already beat current Democratic Senate candidate Larry LaRocco for that job last November by a sizable 58%-39% margin.
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) was considered to be a possible retirement by Karl Rove in that infamous PowerPoint presentation Scott Jennings was illegally giving to government agencies. But at the age of 70, Cochran said he’s seeking re-election. No Democrat has announced, but the top candidate for the Democrats would definitely be former Mississippi Attorney General Mike Moore, who won the famous lawsuit against the tobacco companies in the 1990s.
Montana: One would think Max Baucus (D) would be endangered in a red state like Montana, but given that they now have a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators, even Montana’s landscape is changing. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) was thought to be the GOP’s top choice, but he announced back in July that he would stay in the House. Michael Lange (R) is the only announced Republican candidate so far, but given that he was just ousted as House Majority Leader by his own party after an embarrassing video of him launching a profanity-laced tirade against the governor was put on YouTube, it seems right now Democrats want him to be the GOP candidate more than the GOP does.
New Mexico: At the age of 75, Pete Domenici (R) is running for re-election. But his recent role in the firing of U.S. attorney David Iglesias has hampered his chances, though only slightly. Though he is considered an icon in New Mexico politics, his role in that firing dramatically lowered his approval ratings. Only real estate developer Don Wiviott (D) has officially declared so far.
Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling. State senator Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, has declared for this race.
Tennessee: There are rumors swirling that Lamar Alexander (R) will retire, and become the chancellor of Vanderbilt University. Businessman Mike McWherter (D), son of former Tennessee Governor Ned McWherter (D), looks like he’s going to run for this seat, whether or not Alexander retires. If Alexander retires, this race moves up. If not, it stays here barring solid information that McWherter can make it a real race.
Democratic safe seats
Illinois (Dick Durbin)
Iowa (Tom Harkin)
Massachusetts (John Kerry)
Michigan (Carl Levin)
Rhode Island (Jack Reed)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)
Republican safe seats
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Kansas (Pat Roberts)
Wyoming (Michael Enzi)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)
Friday, August 31, 2007
Senate Target: John Cornyn
I thought it would be a good idea to start looking at Senate races for 2008, so lets get started with a great candidate from the great state of Texas, Rick Noriega (no not that Noriega).Rick is attempting to unseat first term Senator John Cornyn. Cornyn won his seat in 2002 with 54.7% of the vote, and has spent the last 5 years helping out all his fellow Texan's in the White House, all while racking up the third most conservative voting record in the Senate. All of this might help explain why Cornyn started the 2008 election cycle as least popular Republican Senator in the country with only a 41% favorable rating.
So whose Rick Noriega?
Well, Rick is a Lt. Colonel in the Texas National Guard who also happens to be a five term member of the Texas House of Representatives. Aside from being an Afghanistan War Veteran, a native Texan (including the accent), a graduate of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, a Hurricane Katrina rescue worker, and a finalist on American Idol, he doesn't have much of a resume compared to Cornyn. (I'm actually not telling the truth about the American Idol thing, but you get the point.) Noriega isn't a millionaire whose trying to buy this seat, but he is getting solid support from the right Dems in Texas, and even some Republicans.
The Breakdown:
Is this an easy pick up? Hell no. Is this a great candidate who can put up a great fight? Absolutely.
There hasn't been a Democratic Senator from Texas for 19 years. That's right, not since the Dodgers won the World Series has Texas been blue in the Senate, although Dems did make inroads in 2006 by picking up two congressional seats. Cook Political currently has this race classified as a "Safe Republican" seat, but the Noriega's campaign has only started making movement in the last month. Cornyn is currently sitting on $3.3 million in the bank, so Noriega will need to get fundraising A.S.A.P.
This is definatly a candidate and a race we should all keep an eye on.
The campaign site
The draft Noriega news blog
The first commercial
The DSCC breakdown
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