Sunday, September 09, 2007

NE-Sen: A closer look at Bob Kerrey

So with the news that Chuck Hagel (R) is also retiring from the Senate, all eyes turn to former Senator Bob Kerrey (D) to see if he'll reclaim a spot in the Senate. FYI, Kerrey also served as Governor of Nebraska from 1983-1987. Some interesting facts about Kerrey: He only has one foot, having lost the other one in Vietnam. He dated actress Debra Winger while he was the Governor of Nebraska. He also ran for President in 1992, but lost out to a much more charismatic politician by the name of Bill Clinton. He helped convince Jim Webb to run for Senate, and then served as Webb's National Finance Chair, and so today we have a Democratic-controlled Senate.

As for his record, everyone should read this diary from Markos Moulitsas highlighting the good and the bad from Kerrey's record. This would be the case of a pro-Iraq war Democrat replacing an anti-Iraq war Republican. He's actually pretty liberal when it comes to social issues, and showed good judgment on Supreme Court justices. On the interest group ratings, he's much, much more liberal than Ben Nelson, the other Senator from Nebraska, who's actually a Democrat, believe it or not. As Markos showed:

Below I have Kerrey's 1998 interest group ratings. In parenthesis, I'm including Ben Nelson's 2004 numbers for comparison purposes. (Nelson replaced Kerrey in the Senate.)

Americans for Democratic Action (liberal group)
95 (65)

ACLU
86 (33)

AFSCME (labor union)
100 (86)

League of Conservation Voters
100 (67)

Concord Coalition (fiscal conservatives, pro-balanced budget)
86 (81)

National Taxpayers Union (conservative anti-tax group)
22 (34)

Chamber of Commerce (conservative pro-big business group)
56 (81)

American Conservative Union
0 (52)

Christian Coalition
0 (83)


Also, ya gotta love his sense of humor at being called a cockblocker as president of The New School in New York City. Oh, and on Rick Santorum, Kerrey said, "Santorum, that's Latin for asshole." LOL.

As for Iraq, it's more nuanced than some are willing to consider. This New York Observer piece from May goes more in-depth with Kerrey on the issues, and on his comments on the Presidential candidates. When it's not Iraq, but terorrism in general, Kerrey did a most excellent job in smacking down Rudy Giuliani.

In response to Rudy Giuliani’s recent remarks doubting the ability of Democrats to keep America safe from terrorism, the Vietnam veteran and former Navy SEAL questioned whether the former Mayor is himself qualified for the job.

“It’s an outrageous statement,” Mr. Kerrey said about Mr. Giuliani’s assertion that a Democratic President would make the country more vulnerable to a similar terrorist attack. “His record of preparing New York between World Trade Center attack No. 1 and attack No. 2—it wasn’t exemplary.”

Far from it, argued Mr. Kerrey in an interview. The former Nebraska governor and then Senator said that he thinks Mr. Giuliani showed solid leadership in the hours and days after the attack, but he just won’t stand for the idea that Republicans—and especially President Bush—did a better job than Democrats at keeping danger at bay.

“When he turned and said to Bernie Kerik, ‘Thank God George Bush is President,’” said Mr. Kerrey, echoing one of Mr. Giuliani’s favorite (but now retired) 9/11 anecdotes. “What he should have said was, ‘Why the fuck didn’t George Bush call us and tell us this was going to happen?’ That was a more appropriate response.”


On the Democratic candidates:

Joe Biden, he says, is the most serious thinker on Iraq, even though his plan smacks too much of micromanaging. Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd and Governor Bill Richardson are likewise in the top tier of foreign policy.

Barack Obama lacks experience, but is uniquely equipped, given his Muslim heritage, Christian faith and peripatetic childhood, to face the foreign-policy challenges of the 21st century.

John Edwards has made strides in foreign policy since he last ran for President, though he is still stronger on domestic issues.


On Iraq, he's more nuanced than kos is willing to give him credit for.

“I think we have under-funded the Iraqi military,” said Mr. Kerrey. “They don’t have enough helicopters; they don’t have enough of the basic necessities to confront an enemy, either domestic or foreign. So the idea that we are going to provide them an incentive by cutting back on their military—I don’t understand that.”

Worse, said Mr. Kerrey, is that such a move would help America’s enemy in the region.

“Iran will step into the breach,” he said. “If we don’t want to be Iraq’s ally, there are a lot of people in the region who we don’t like who will be willing to fill the gap.”

....

He argues that the United States achieved its goal of regime change in Iraq by deposing Saddam Hussein, and that it is not America’s role to police the nation, train its soldiers, or even stand in the way of widespread sectarian bloodshed. At the same time, he advocates robust military operations in the majority-Sunni Anbar province with the goal of wiping out Al Qaeda cells, and behaving like a “good ally” to an Iraqi government under siege by an insurgency.

Unlike Mr. Biden, who he says has “a very, very serious proposal of what to do” in Iraq, Mr. Kerrey is convinced the country should not be split up into ethnically homogonous regions and believes that it wants, at its core, to be unified. To that end, Mr. Kerrey wished that Washington would stop “meddling” in Iraq’s affairs.

At the same time, Mr. Kerrey is still very obviously suspicious of the ascendant out-of-Iraq portion of the Democratic electorate.

“Had we not invaded Iraq and overthrown Saddam Hussein—and if Iraq was experiencing the kind of sectarian violence that they are experiencing today—liberals would be advocating, as they are in Darfur, that we use military force to go in,” said Mr. Kerrey. “For any Democratic candidate, they are facing a very anti-war audience. And that’s reality.”


So therein lies Bob Kerrey. Maybe not the perfect candidate for us California Democrats, but someone who may be a good fit for Nebraska. And FWIW, even Ben Nelson is now saying the "surge" hasn't worked.

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Saturday news: Hagel gone, go bruins

Saturday is always a slow news day for political junkies, inevitably forcing me to find a new way to procrastinate from LSAT studying. (It's sad when you're reduced to sitting there hitting "refresh" on Google Reader). Nonetheless, a few important/interesting links worth reading...

Hagel's out- Could our outlook on the Senate be any better? Legit shot at not one, but TWO Democratic Senators from Nebraska in a years time.

Dodd calls for embargo on Cuba- yeah, I mean, it's "leadership" on an important issue, I guess, (and he's right) but not a terribly risky position in the primary. But kiss Florida goodbye if he's the nominee.

The OO (Obama and Oprah, make that up myself) fundraiser finally went down... if that's not A-list, I dont know what is.

While we're on Obama, only fair to point you to this article. I don't think its particularly damaging or unfair, just points out the realities of politics to me. Until we publicly fund campaigns, I have trouble criticizing people for raising money from people who believe in them.

And for anyone who wasn't there, we beat BYU in typical UCLA closer-than-it-should-have-been fashion, but a win is a win. Looked great in the first half, terrible in the 2nd. D came up with big plays though, bailing out Olsen and the offense. Olsen and co have to improve if we want a shot at anything serious this year.

Go bruins. And Bob Kerrey.

Friday, September 07, 2007

And Now, A Message From Preeminent Climatologist, Ted Stevens

Expert climatologist and Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens has confidently claimed that global warming is winding down. In a local news broadcast story on the effects of climate change on an Alaskan town, Stevens predicted that the end of bad weather conditions was at its end.

Stevens, while acknowledging the impact of global climate change, said he believes the worst may be over.

"We're at the end of a long, long term of warming. 700 to 900 years of increased temperature, a very slow increase. We think we're close to the end of that. If we're close to the end of that, that means that we'll starting getting cooler gradually, not very rapidly, but cooler once again and stability might come to this region for a period of another 900 years," Stevens said.
This was his way of telling the residents of Shishmaref, which is being washed away by rising waters despite the construction of massive sea walls, that they're on their own.

Stevens' statement also came as a surprise to Deborah Williams, the president of Alaska Conservation Solutions, who said that his theory is a "new one." It just so happens that the Senator's theory contradicts all previous findings of climate change scientists, including the IPCC study released a few months ago.

"I have not heard of any credible climatologist who believes that the earth is going to cool," said Williams. "To the best of my knowledge, every climatologist believes that the Earth is going to warm, in large part because of greenhouse gas emissions."

This is the same man who once described the internet as a "series of tubes" in reference to network neutrality. In his credit though, as the green-lifestyle blog TreeHugger points out, Stevens has come a long way from when he argued that man-made greenhouse gases do not contribute to global warming.

Is the Press Starting to Get it?

As Obama continues to trail in the Iowa polls, the press corps is slowly coming around to the politics of hope. In this Salon article, Walter Shapiro lauds Obama for his authenticity and suspects that his "I'm a Uniter, not a Divider" argument could work well against Hillary.

Speaking of Hillary and Obama, BD's uber scientific presidential poll has changed since last night. The two candidates are back in a neck-and-neck tie (19-19).

Some Friday Reads

Starbucks is Everywhere!

"The Kleck" Turns-in Norm to the Authorities--What a Snitch!

Speaking of Shady Characters who Support Hillary...

You're Welcome, Germany

The $h** is About to Hit the Fan

TNR Triple PWN!

Peter Keating pwns Rudy and Obama (kinda) while Michael Crowley pwns Hillary.

By the way, Hillary has officially pulled ahead in BD's uber scientific presidential poll. Perhaps the HRC fans can elaborate on her experience.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Kanye West Graduates

Like the writer who penned this review for the Village Voice, I'm still trying to make up my mind about Kanye West's latest album, Graduation. There are times when I love the album, and then there are times when I hesitate to compliment it because I'm not sure what West is trying to say to his audience. With any other musician, that lack of artistic clarity would be a flaw, but with Kanye, the genius of his work usually lies within the ambiguities of his albums. Give me a few more days to work it out. I'm getting closer to cracking the code every time I take a ride in my car.

Where's Norman Hsu?

That's the question Judge Robert D. Foiles asked when Clinton campaign donor Norman Hsu failed to show up to court yesterday. Hsu turned himself in to California authorities this week after being on the run for 15 years. Originally wanted on charges of fraud, the Justice Department is currently investigating Hsu's fundraising efforts for a laundry list of Democratic pols, including Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Al Franken, and Eliot Spitzer. It is suspected that he gave phony information about the contributors to his campaign cash bundles.

So, where is Norman Hsu? As it turns out, he is receiving sanctuary from Bruin Democrats President Kyle Kleckner. Kleckner, also known as "The Kleck," served as an intern for Hillary Clinton this summer. Ever the Clinton loyalist, he courageously volunteered to let Hsu take up residence in his Westwood apartment. Kyle says "Norm" is doing well given the circumstances. Tomorrow, they plan to watch a season of X-Files and crack open a couple of Smirnoff Ices. Check in for further updates on Norm's condition.

Some Thursday Reads

Finally! Fred Thompson Stopped Playing with our Emotions

Robert Duvall Made Giuliani an Offer he Couldn't Refuse

Teddy Kennedy Made his 15,000th Vote [I'm sure he wishes we were joking]

The GAO Says Federal Govt. should do More about Climate Change [Duh!]

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

One Tin Soldier

This song was originally recorded in 1971 by the group Coven. It's just as poignant today as it was during the Vietnam War, and this video updates it with scenes from the Iraq War. Pretty powerful video.




Here are the lyrics.

Listen, children, to a story
That was written long ago,
'Bout a kingdom on a mountain
And the valley-folk below.

On the mountain was a treasure
Buried deep beneath the stone,
And the valley-people swore
They'd have it for their very own.

Go ahead and hate your neighbor,
Go ahead and cheat a friend.
Do it in the name of Heaven,
You can justify it in the end.
There won't be any trumpets blowin'
Come the judgment day,
On the bloody morning after....
One tin soldier rides away.

So the people of the valley
Sent a message up the hill,
Asking for the buried treasure,
Tons of gold for which they'd kill.

Came an answer from the kingdom,
"With our brothers we will share
All the secrets of our mountain,
All the riches buried there."

Now the valley cried with anger,
"Mount your horses! Draw your sword!"
And they killed the mountain-people,
So they won their just reward.

Now they stood beside the treasure,
On the mountain, dark and red.
Turned the stone and looked beneath it....
"Peace on Earth" was all it said.

Go ahead and hate your neighbor,
Go ahead and cheat a friend.
Do it in the name of Heaven,
You can justify it in the end.
There won't be any trumpets blowin'
Come the judgment day,
On the bloody morning after....
One tin soldier rides away.

Go ahead and hate your neighbor,
Go ahead and cheat a friend.
Do it in the name of Heaven,
You can justify it in the end.
There won't be any trumpets blowin'
Come the judgment day,
On the bloody morning after....
One tin soldier rides away.

Bush Flip-Flops on Iraq

Foreign Policy's blog, Passport, notes that President Bush's new "bottom-up" strategy closely resembles the strategy proposed by Senator Joe Biden way back in 2006. Naturally, the White House dismissed Biden's plan when he first proposed it. But now, apparently, Joe's plan is golden.

McGreevey Offers his Two Cents on Craig

Former NJ Governor James McGreevey wrote an amazing op-ed about the Larry Craig scandal in the Washington Post. It's a couple days old. I really don't know how the blogosphere missed it. McGreevey recounts how he managed to get out of a similar gay sex sting when he was in his late twenties. He writes about this incident within the broader context of his painful experiences living a double-life before he came out of the closet. It's a remarkable read.

If you're wondering whatever happened to McGreevey, he is currently a student at the General Theological Seminary of the Episcopal Church in New York.

Back to Cali

I know we've (and I definitely include myself) all developed somewhat of an obsession (addiction?) to the 08 race, but I'm constantly shocked to learn that there are actually other things going on, things that actually do things, like initiatives and stuff.

On that note, in a margin that rivals Florida status, the term limits reform ballot initiative qualified for the February ballot today, by a mere 957 signatures, out of the hundreds of thousands that are required.

I hope you all join me in supporting this badly needed initiative. If you follow state politics at all (which I barely do), you can see how absurd it is to kick someone out of their seat after 6 years in office, creating a ridiculous constant search for higher office, as well as a never ending power vacuum that gives more, not less, power to special interest lobbies.

February is shaping up to be a fun election.

Electability

From Rasmussen Reports' General Election Match-Ups, here's what the polls were saying as of Labor Day. (hat tip jamess)

GENERALELECTIONMATCH-UPS
DemocratRepublicanWins by
Edwards 49%Giuliani 41%Dems Win +8%
Obama 44%Giuliani 43%Dems Win +1%
Clinton 44%Giuliani 47%Dems Lose -3%
Edwards 50%Huckabee 33%Dems Win +17%
Obama 48%Huckabee 39%Dems Win +9%
Clinton 49%Huckabee 41%Dems Win +8%
Edwards 45%McCain 38%Dems Win +7%
Obama 46%McCain 40%Dems Win +6%
Clinton 46%McCain 44%Dems Win +2%
Edwards 52%Romney 36%Dems Win +16%
Obama 47%Romney 38%Dems Win +9%
Clinton 51%Romney 40%Dems Win +11%
Edwards 49%Thompson 35%Dems Win +14%
Obama 46%Thompson 39%Dems Win +7%
Clinton 48%Thompson 44%Dems Win +4%


Here's a graphical representation of what that all means. (Click image to see full-size version.)



Now, while some will argue that all the national polls are good for is name recognition, there are some things we can tell from this. While you could make the argument that Edwards has some residual higher name recognition from 2004, with the media's fascination with Obama, they have pretty much equal name recognition. In fact, Gallup confirms this.



With Edwards and Obama sharing almost identical name recognition nationally, and just a bit behind Hillary, there's something going on here that's more than just name recognition when it comes to Edwards' leads in the polls.


Now, the STATE polls are a much different matter. See, Iowa is already (and has been for a few months now) been inundated with radio and TV and newspaper ads from the various campaigns. This is not happening in, say, California. If a voter in Iowa doesn't know who the main candidates are by now, with the caucus possibly being held in December 2007 the way things are going, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that that person isn't going to show up to vote in the caucus anyway. And FYI, Edwards hasn't run any campaign commercials in Iowa this cycle yet. The only one to air in Iowa was the one with Iowans asking Congress to stop capitulating to Bush on Iraq.

And as for Iowa, here's the latest TIME poll, which was taken before Edwards picked up those key labor endorsements from the Steelworkers and the Mineworkers.

A new TIME poll of likely Iowa caucus goers, taken a week after Edwards' seven-day, 31-stop bus tour of the state, gives Edwards 29% of the vote, five points ahead of Hillary Clinton and seven ahead of Barack Obama. This latest TIME Poll of 519 likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers finds that, among the so-called "second-tier" candidates, Bill Richardson has 11%, with Joe Biden at 5%, Dennis Kucinich with 2%, and Chris Dodd at 1%. (The Poll was conducted August 22 - 25, 2007. The margin of error is approximately +/- 5 percentage points.)

With the field limited to the top four candidates, Edwards's lead over Clinton widens, to 32% to 24%. Obama was at 22%, with Bill Richardson at 13%. Iowa polls can be unreliable, since only 5% to 10% of voters go to the caucuses; some other recent surveys have Edwards in a dead heat with Clinton and Obama. The race remains wide open, but Edwards's position remains strong.


Remember, with the way the Iowa caucuses work, they have a "realignment" once the also-rans are eliminated. So it's very likely the top four will go according to the TIME poll, or perhaps even without Richardson, if he doesn't have enough initial support to qualify going to the next round. Given that Edwards increases his lead over the field when the single-digit candidates are eliminated, Edwards looks to be in good shape to win the Iowa caucuses. And winning Iowa will have an effect on all the other states.

BTW, pollster Mark Blumenthal shares his insight into the differing methodologies of the TIME vs. the American Research Group polls that recently came out. Basically, you have to beware of voter screens that are too wide. Only 5.5% of eligible voters in Iowa showed up for the Democratic caucuses back in January 2004. Those are the hardcore of the hardcore. The real unknown is how much pull Hillary will have with Iowa women who have never participated in a caucus before now. It's one thing to say you're going to show up; it's another thing to actually show up. One truth in polling is that people tend to exaggerate their civic participation; I remember one poll that asked if the person had voted in 2004, and over 75% said they did, when only about 55% of the voting-age population actually did. So if a poll is casting too wide a net, it will most likely be oversampling those with higher name recognition. And I'll add this too. Polls that treat Iowa like a regular primary where you fill out a ballot and go home ignore, at their own peril, the complexities of the caucus system. More polls should ask questions like TIME did, first asking of all the candidates, and then asking a second question of just the top-tier ones, mirroring how the actual process will work.

Are these John Edwards' Friends?

After reading this, I wondered, "Does John Edwards know these guys?"